Defining and evaluating predictions of joint species distribution models

Abstract

Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) simultaneously model the distributions of multiple species, while accounting for residual co-occurrence patterns. Despite increasing adoption of JSDMs in the literature, the question of how to define and evaluate JSDM predictions has only begun to be explored. We define four different JSDM prediction types that correspond to different aspects of species distribution and community assemblage processes. Marginal predictions are environment-only predictions akin to predictions from single-species models; joint predictions simultaneously predict entire community assemblages; and conditional marginal and conditional joint predictions are made at the speci..